Twelve months ago, the Mercedes-AMG Petronas Formula One Team made a significant strategic shift, abandoning their initial car concept with a substantial upgrade package introduced at the Monaco Grand Prix. The distinctive zero-sidepod design was replaced in favor of a more conventional approach, signaling a major change in direction. However, a year later, Mercedes is still facing considerable challenges in closing the gap to the front of the grid. While they’ve addressed some of their previous issues, new complexities have emerged, preventing them from consistently competing for race wins and even seeing them outperformed by customer teams.
Toto Wolff, Mercedes’ team principal, openly acknowledges McLaren’s impressive resurgence, particularly noting their use of the same Mercedes engine. McLaren’s transformation from a midfield contender to a regular podium finisher and race winner is, in Wolff’s words, “a fantastic recovery story.” This raises a critical question: If McLaren, with the same power unit, has achieved such a remarkable turnaround, why hasn’t Mercedes replicated that success with the Mercedes F1 Car 2024?
Misconceptions About Sidepod Changes and the Mercedes W15
When Mercedes unveiled their visually striking update in Monaco in 2023, the immediate spotlight was on the abandonment of the zero-sidepods. This design element had become synonymous with Mercedes’ struggles in the ground-effect era of Formula 1. However, as consistently emphasized by the team, the sidepod change was not the defining factor in their performance shift. Technical director James Allison clarified that the more crucial changes were made to the underfloor, rear brake drums/ducts, and the front wing. Furthermore, adjustments were implemented to the front suspension to enhance platform control.
The primary objective of these modifications was to set Mercedes on a development trajectory that would enable their car to operate at lower ride heights. This was crucial for generating the necessary downforce without encountering the persistent bouncing or porpoising issues that plagued the early iterations of the ground effect cars.
The Mercedes W15, the 2024 contender, represents the full realization of this change in design philosophy. Despite this, the Mercedes F1 car 2024 currently sits as the fourth-best car in Formula 1. This is reflected both in their constructors’ championship position and their average pace relative to the competition. While they have edged ahead of Aston Martin, a clear gap remains to the top three teams: Red Bull Racing, Scuderia Ferrari, and McLaren. While the Monaco Grand Prix showed glimpses of Mercedes’ potential to compete with these frontrunners, the preceding race at Imola, on a more conventional circuit, provided a more realistic picture of their current standing.
Lewis Hamilton, after finishing sixth at Imola, pointed out a significant race-pace deficit of three to four tenths of a second per lap. He expressed concern that such a performance leap was not currently achievable through wind tunnel development for Mercedes. However, drawing comparisons to previous races at Imola, it’s evident that Mercedes has made tangible progress over the years. Wolff himself described their last visit to Imola as “horrendous,” recalling the severe bouncing problems that severely hampered the team in the initial phase of the new regulations in 2022.
Mercedes is still navigating the repercussions of their initial misdirection in car design. Nevertheless, there are indications that they are beginning to close the performance gap, albeit at a slower pace than desired.
Progress Is Evident, But Not at the Required Pace
Since the substantial car concept revisions a year prior, Mercedes has demonstrated progress in absolute terms. The Mercedes F1 car 2024 is generally faster than its predecessor, the W14. Across the six circuits that have hosted Formula 1 races in both 2023 and 2024, Mercedes has recorded faster lap times at five of them, with Miami being the only exception.
However, when viewed in relative terms, Mercedes has actually experienced a slight regression. At the end of the 2023 season, their average pace deficit to the front was just over 0.5 percent. So far in the 2024 season, this deficit has widened to just under 0.7 percent.
While the 2023 W14 was fundamentally limited by its initial design architecture, the expectation was that the changes implemented for 2024 – including modifications to the monocoque, gearbox, and crucially, the suspension design – would unlock greater development potential for the Mercedes F1 car 2024. Despite the somewhat underwhelming race results, the consistent progress being made with the W15 serves as evidence that this enhanced potential is being realized. However, the rate of progress is not rapid enough to facilitate a significant climb up the competitive order in the short term.
Allison believes that the Mercedes F1 car 2024 is no longer constrained by fundamental limitations in its core architecture. The focus now is on diligent effort and sustained development to restore Mercedes to a position of competitiveness and respectability within Formula 1.
Identifying the Sources of Performance Gains for the Mercedes W15
Although the sidepod configuration garnered significant attention, its change was not the primary driver of performance gains. However, the shift away from the zero-sidepod concept did create more favorable conditions for manipulating airflow around the sidepods, mirroring the aerodynamic strategies adopted by other teams.
Conceptually, the critical aspects revolve around the ride heights at which the car is designed to operate, the methods employed to achieve these ride heights, and ensuring consistent performance across a spectrum of cornering speeds and track conditions.
Allison acknowledged that the 2023 car was initially conceived to run at a slightly higher ride height. This was a carryover from the 2022 car concept, and it underestimated the performance benefits achievable from adjustments to the floor height regulations implemented over the winter – regulations that Mercedes themselves had advocated for but subsequently did not fully capitalize on.
The Mercedes F1 car 2024 addresses this issue. The enhanced anti-lift characteristics of the front suspension and anti-squat properties of the rear suspension are specifically engineered to enable the car to run at lower ride heights, maximizing downforce generation while mitigating bouncing and porpoising.
Upgrades have been systematically introduced throughout the 2024 season. The Miami Grand Prix saw the debut of a modified front wing featuring changes to the chord length and refinements to the floor edges.
Subsequently, at the Monaco Grand Prix, George Russell was equipped with the first available iteration of a new front wing design for the Mercedes F1 car 2024. Both drivers are slated to utilize this updated front wing, described by trackside engineering chief Andrew Shovlin as “a step in the right direction,” starting from the Montreal race.
Similar to the 2023 sidepod changes, the 2024 front wing modification represents a departure from a visually distinctive innovation. The new wing abandons the unique design Mercedes introduced at the season’s outset, which connected the narrowed top flap of the front wing to the nose cone using a carbon fiber strip to comply with regulations. This design aimed to streamline airflow to the front of the floor. However, it appears to have compromised aerodynamic load at the front of the car.
These front wing developments underscore a persistent challenge confronting the Mercedes F1 car 2024.
Lingering Struggles in Slow-Speed Corners
A primary weakness of the previous Mercedes car was rear-end instability, particularly in high-speed corners. Drivers consistently voiced complaints about this issue, and rectifying it became a top priority for the Mercedes F1 car 2024 design. However, Russell indicates that this focus on high-speed stability might have led to an over-compensation in the current car’s design.
While the Mercedes F1 car 2024 has demonstrated improved understanding and enhanced performance in high-speed corners – after some initial challenges early in the season – a new issue has emerged: corner entry in slower corners. As Hamilton describes it, “the slower you go, the less the car wants to turn.”
This characteristic is particularly detrimental for Hamilton, given his renowned ability to brake exceptionally late for slow corners and rapidly rotate the car for turn-in.
The consequence is a car that excels in fast corners but exhibits understeer in slow corners. Furthermore, attempts to adjust the setup to improve slow-corner turn-in compromise the car’s strengths in high-speed sections. This trade-off between fast and slow corner performance has become a central topic of discussion and development focus for Mercedes.
Wolff, borrowing an analogy from Allison, likens the situation to a duvet that is too small – attempting to gain performance in one area necessitates sacrificing it in another, be it fast or slow cornering.
The ongoing development program for the Mercedes F1 car 2024 is heavily focused on resolving this interconnected performance challenge. Allison anticipates that tangible progress in this area will be achieved by the summer break.
Mercedes is not pursuing radical transformations or “magic bullet” solutions to suddenly return to winning races and contending for championships. Instead, the emphasis is on consistent, incremental progress.
Moving Away from Development “Zig-Zagging”
Wolff characterizes Mercedes’ current development approach as a departure from past “zig-zagging” strategies. This refers to periods of promising advancements followed by performance setbacks, leading to inconsistent progress.
Wolff now asserts that Mercedes has identified a fundamental understanding that instills confidence in their ongoing development direction for the Mercedes F1 car 2024 and beyond.
Encouragingly, this sentiment echoes the confidence expressed by McLaren team principal Andrea Stella prior to the Austrian Grand Prix upgrade in 2023, which dramatically transformed his team’s competitive level.
Unlike McLaren, Mercedes is not anticipating a sudden leap in performance. However, if they are indeed on the correct development trajectory, sustained and steady progress should gradually elevate them back into the leading group of teams. While they are not currently at that level, they are not significantly distant either.
Analyzing the relative performance of Mercedes compared to McLaren over the past year underscores the impact of even small performance gains and highlights the potential for Mercedes to close the gap.
Mercedes still has considerable ground to cover and needs to demonstrate its capacity for sustained development. They must prove that they have finally established the fundamental understanding of these ground-effect cars necessary for consistent success.
However, they are now positioned to pursue gradual development, rather than resorting to further major shifts in direction.
Focusing on the 2026 Horizon
The progress Mercedes achieves now is crucial for establishing a strong foundation for the significant regulation changes coming in 2026, encompassing both new engine and chassis regulations.
While aerodynamic testing for the 2026 cars is not permitted until January next year, all Formula 1 teams, including Mercedes, are already dedicating substantial resources to research and development in preparation for these changes.
The 2026 cars will continue to utilize potent venturi underfloor aerodynamics. Therefore, the knowledge and expertise being accumulated now are directly applicable to the 2026 car designs.
Paddock speculation suggests that Mercedes is potentially leading in power unit development for 2026. While it is still early, and performance comparisons are speculative until the new cars debut on track, there is widespread confidence in Mercedes AMG High Performance Powertrains’ ability to produce a competitive engine.
Wolff affirms that Mercedes possesses an engine department that is operating at peak capability. This is despite reports of a “brain drain” at Mercedes, with Red Bull team principal Christian Horner claiming that they have recruited 220 staff from Mercedes for their own powertrains division.
Wolff countered this claim, stating that the actual number of engineers who have moved to Red Bull is 19. While the total number, including non-engineering personnel, is understood to be somewhat higher, it is significantly less than the 220 figure cited.
Despite the public back-and-forth, Mercedes maintains justified confidence in Brixworth’s capacity to develop a top-tier engine for the 2026 regulations.
The pivotal question is whether this engine will be integrated into a chassis that is equally competitive with its rivals. The ongoing development efforts for the Mercedes F1 car 2024 and beyond are critical in determining whether Mercedes can realistically reclaim its position at the front of the Formula 1 grid in 2026 and beyond.
